The Flow of Nuclear Weapon Proliferation – What Nation-State is Next to Get a Nuke?

Ever wonder which Nation might be the next to get Nuclear Weapons? We recently saw North Korea attain nuclear weapons, and we know that Iran is working on it, we suspect nations like Libya, and others, question is which comes next, and how will that change the balance of safety against a nuclear exchange or a terrorist group getting a hold of one?

What a crazy time we live in, it seems that so many nations are going nuclear, no not nuclear power, that hardly concerns world leaders, after all as long as the spent fuel rods are properly disposed of, no harm, no foul – and it is all about clean energy these days. No problem there, but when it comes to nuclear weapons; whooyah, that’s just flat scary stuff. Today, we have Iran and North Korea as the next in line, of those nations with nuclear weapon capabilities but who will it be in the next ten years – that is to say who’s next?

Well, let me give you my guesses, what do you think about these nations; Algeria, Libya, Thailand, Venezuela, Brazil, Vietnam – will they be added to the list of nuclear weaponized nations within a decade? And if Venezuela becomes a nuclear weaponized nation, what about the rest of Hugo Chavez’s ALBA group? I mean this is all possible right, and so I was discussing this with Jesse Giraldo, a scholar of post cold war US-Russian international relations and he said; “I honestly don’t see any of those nations becoming nuclear powers in the next few years simply because I don’t see their need to do so.”

Still, I’d say all within the decade if things don’t change, they will be some of the nations to watch. If North Korea or Iran gets theirs, expect many more to follow, just as once Pakistan got their nuclear capability, they shared their technology with many other nations, including Iran. So, who will these new players, and the existing players share the knowledge and technology with? Jesse states; “Nuclear weaponization of these nations would only deplete their treasury and invite needless diplomatic difficulties while giving them very little real political clout.”

It would indeed make things tricky economically, politically, and in diplomatic channels, but it might not cost them much, especially if nations like Pakistan give them the technology, and/or North Korea, Iran start sharing technology or manufacturing weapons to sell. Giraldo says; “I suppose Venezuela becoming a nuclear power is possible but again I don’t think any these nations see it as particularly attractive to do so in the near future.”

Maybe so, maybe Jesse Giraldo is right about that, and yet, Hugo Chavez would love to have a nuke or two, just to rub it in our faces. Indeed, it is my hope that the IAEA, UN, NATO, and the current nations with nuclear power will consider this ever increasing dilemma.

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